Victorious Max

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Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.

Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.

Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

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This requirement raised concerns among operators worried that the barriers to entry could have become more restrictive, But at a meeting on the policies last year the regulator assured licensees it was not enforcing a specific strict rule on this.

Speaking to iGB at the time, Bjorn Fuchs, chairman of VNLOK Fuchs noted “there was a sigh of relief going through the room when it was presented”.

Rather than a crackdown across the board, what emerged was a more regulated renewal framework.