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The analysts estimated that an operator capturing a one-cent spread and managing its exposure successfully could generate net economics of approximately $1.69 on a $100 trade. Returns are not guaranteed: adverse price movements and unresolved inventory can offset or exceed income from spreads, rebates and liquidity incentives.
The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.
“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”
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Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to send a provisional measure to Congress this week to tighten the regulations for betting in Brazil.
According to CNN Brazil, the government is considering expanding restrictions on betting advertising and banning online casino games. The idea would be to maintain only sports betting.
The decision to use a provisional measure means the restrictions can take effect immediately, less than a month before the elections. This is the clearest indication yet that the sector is being used for electoral purposes to try and secure Lula’s re-election.
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H1 growth was driven by Sun International’s online division, with revenue from SunBet surging 35.5% year-on-year to R1.18 billion.
Sun International CEO Ulrik Bengtsson noted SunBet’s revenue growth of 35.5% outpaced the 19% South African online market’s overall growth of 19% during the period,
SunBet’s growth was supported by a 32.3% rise in active player days, while first-time depositors also increased 17.5%.
