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He believes the success of Africa Safer Gambling Week will largely be assessed on whether that channelisation improves by the next edition.

He warns governments and policymakers often misunderstand the primary causes of problem gambling, and therefore enforce measures that squeeze licensed operators and drive the illegal market.

For the AiA, however, the longer-term ambition for Africa Safer Gambling Week extends beyond reducing the size of the offshore market.

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In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.

The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.

James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.

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Lamb described this task as “practically limiting the authority’s ability to most effectively monitor compliance” across the scheme. 

She suggested that the State Revenue chief commissioner’s office would be better equipped to manage what she characterised as a tax rebate programme.

NSW government figures classify poker machines as the most harmful gambling format in the state, yet clubs continue to operate approximately 65,000 poker machines, benefiting substantially from tax rebates through the scheme.