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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

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This reliance places many high-value players at risk of “silent churn”, where VIP players become inactive without warning, posing a significant challenge for operators.

The report, titled The State of VIP Operations, was compiled by The Playa in collaboration with Gaming Operations Academy and WarriorLab.

Conducted in 2026, it surveyed 70 professionals actively engaged in VIP management, including VIP account managers, heads of VIP and consultants, with 64% employed directly by gambling operators. 

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Rather than a crackdown across the board, what emerged was a more regulated renewal framework.

Of the KSA’s update, Fuchs said: “If you [as an operator] have a clean sheet, there are some hoops, but for various modules you can just send a declaration which states that you’re compliant.”

He emphasised the new system would make burdens less demanding than before, but the new ‘exit plan’ requirement and sharper duty‑of‑care definitions do bring some added complexity.