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He compares the effect with sportsbook cash-out features, which gave customers more apparent control over their bets but may also have encouraged greater spending. The crucial difference is that an exchange customer can be facing a specialist whose entire business is identifying inaccurately priced contracts.

Kendrick sees a warning in the history of betting exchanges. In their early growth phase, there was sufficient retail liquidity for numerous market makers to profit. As that retail pool weakened, the sharper firms increasingly found themselves trading against one another.

His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

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“Prediction markets represent a meaningful second channel for NFL wagering but still small on a relative scale, reflecting a new sector with less of an installed base,” observes EKG.

It’s widely believed that all-or-nothing exchanges are carving out significant niches in states, such as California and Texas, where sports betting is prohibited, but there’s also emerging consensus that the prediction market threat to sportsbooks is easing.

A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

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Those that have received renewals include TOTO Online BV (brands: TOTO, Winnitt), Holland Casino NV (Holland Casino Online), Play North Limited (Kansino), FPO Nederland BV (FairPlay Casino), Bingoal Nederland BV (Bingoal), Hillside (New Media Malta) Plc (Bet365), NSUS Malta Limited (GG Poker), and Betent BV (Betcity).

This selection reflects a mix of both local and internationally-based operators. The list reflects operators that were previously active in the market, meaning so far no new operators have received an approval to operate.

Both LiveScore and Tombola, who were a part of the original 10 operators to receive a licence, exited the market in 2024.